We hold these truths to be less evident, not all fantasy footballers are created equal.
It feels like only yesterday that I was lifting up the 26-pound, brass-plated Brothel trophy after my fourth championship in seven years.
I’m a modern day New England Patriots, I know. Except the only thing deflated is my league mates’ egos. I would feel the same if I came in last and had to take home a golden dildo (yes, it’s a real thing). Hell, that’s what makes being on the cusp of fantasy football season the best time of the year.
2015 is a new year, and with that comes a new outlook on how to attack the season. That’s the best part about fantasy football – no matter how many championships you win or how disappointing last year was, each new season is just as exciting.
So yes, now that fantasy football is back I’m back too. (If you couldn’t guess from the title, I go by Blen.)
And thus it’s time to serve up the most unfiltered, no bullshit fantasy football advice you’ll find on the web. I don’t care if I’m wrong, it’s going to happen. All I know is I’ll be right more times than not, and more importantly, I’ll help find areas of value that your league of peasants couldn’t stumble upon if they wanted to.
To give you an idea of what value I’m talking about, take these five intrepid nuggets of intel and store them away until draft day. And if you’ve already drafted, maybe utilize them in a trade. Either way, nobody in their right mind has the balls to tell you these.
But I do.
What You All Came Here For
1. Doug Martin outscores DeMarco Murray.
I told you I wasn’t fucking around. I am off the DeMarco Murray train in 2015 for two reasons. The first being the Cowboys essentially ran him into the ground last season, and the second being I don’t trust Chip Kelly worth a damn when it comes to the distribution of running back touches.
DeMarco Murray is still going to rush for 1,000 yards if he doesn’t get injured. However, my feeling is that Doug Martin returns to his rookie form as the catalyst for a rejuvenated Buccaneers offense.
Most importantly, I would rather bust a cap in my league’s ass when I take Martin as RB35 rather than Murray with the 4th overall pick.
2. Odell Beckham Jr. finishes outside of the top 10 at wide receiver.
America’s baby, OBJ. He’s easily the hottest commodity heading into the season, and for that reason alone I’ll fade. OBJ is talented, and I’ll admit that I misjudged him coming out of LSU. But there are still parts of his game I don’t trust as it pertains to consistent fantasy value – which is the winning kind of value.
He’s injury prone. I don’t care if you think that’s a thing or not, I believe that certain players have a tendency to find themselves shelved at points during the season while others don’t. Like Arian Foster.
Also, the Giants offensive line is among the worst in football. Eli Manning isn’t going to be graced with a lot of time to throw the football, and that usually leads to very bad things. The target dispersion becomes muddled when you factor Shane Vereen out of the backfield and the return of Victor Cruz.
Like DeMarco Murray, OBJ will still get his. Just expect a regression towards the norm.
3. Stevie Johnson outscores his teammate Keenan Allen.
Bank on Stevie Johnson being that name from the past that resurfaces in 2015. In San Diego, Stevie has a phenomenal opportunity to resurrect the semblance of a budding career he had in Buffalo.
Considering Philip Rivers’ habit of spreading around the rock, the fact Johnson is solidified as the Chargers’ No. 3 WR, and the knowledge of Malcolm Floyd being one slot ahead of him on the depth are all upticks. Yes, I’m saying Malcolm Floyd sucks.
Keenan Allen had a major sophomore slump last year. And while I’ve been a big KA fan since his days at Cal, I’m not confident in his fantasy prospects outside of your PPR leagues. He simply won’t find the end zone with the regularity you want or need him to.
Stash this name on the bottom of your draft lists and reap the benefits when no one drafts him.
4. Colin Kaepernick finishes as a top five QB.
Quarterbacks are all over the place in 2015. It’s probably the most volatile position group in fantasy. That’s what makes it even more fun to throw a prognosticative dart with a bit of rationale.
Kaepernick’s ADP is going to plummet in drafts this year because of the public perception of the 49ers offseason. But don’t let that turn you off. Kaepernick is an elite talent—not without flaws—and has the ability to put up points in bunches. Given the way the 49ers are trending on defense, expect the offense to feel the pressure to put up points.
Luckily with Colin Kaepernick, that can come through the air and on the ground.
5. Jordan Matthews finishes top 5 in the NFL in receiving yards.
I already said I don’t trust Chip Kelly for shit with his running backs, and that holds true for his wide receivers. But Jordan Matthews is a special talent, and he continues to excel in training camp as the number one target in Philly with Jeremy Maclin gone.
Top 5 is a tall order. You’re talking about being in the same tier as Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant. But that’s the type of ability Matthews has, and with Sam Bradford tossing him the ball (hopefully for 16 games), he should produce the consistency in yards per game you look for from an elite receiver.
If he finds the end zone like we all hope he will, then forget yardage totals – ‘JMatt’ is going to be a fantasy gold mine.