Super Bowl Sunday aside, New Years Day is the ultimate gambling day.
And with the new college football playoff system – specifically, the “New Year’s Six” – we’re guaranteed to get prime college football every January 1st until they decide to change it again/make more money.
If you’re reading this, you probably remember we filled your pockets handsomely during college football championship week — nailing a Florida underdog play, Iowa/Michigan State under, and Houston to boot.
We’re back again so you can 1) recover from Christmas shopping expenses, and 2) afford that gym membership you’ll desperately need after this holiday season.
Before the lines move, let’s get right to the action on the New Years Day betting guide.
2016 New Years Day Betting Guide
11 am: Tennessee vs. Northwestern | Outback Bowl | Tennessee -8.5, 47 |
This is what I call a random New Years Day game between two under-the-radar teams that probably shouldn’t be playing on January 1st. Don’t let that sound like an indictment of either team’s 2015 season.
This game should be a lot like a recess fist fight between two kids diminutive in stature but big in ego. I always side with the underdog in those situations, and that’s what I’m going to do here. The Wildcats catching 8 and the hook is the play.
The Pick: Northwestern +8.5
12 pm: Florida vs. Michigan | Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl | Michigan -4.5, 38.5 |
The last thing people remember about Florida is them battling for three quarters in the SEC Championship until Alabama wore them out. The Gators’ 15 points against Bama was their highest point total since October 18th. 15 points. 15 whole points.
There’s a rule in gambling, and most of life actually, that says, pay for the trend and not for the outlier. Florida scoring 15 and looking competent against Bama is the outlier here.
Michigan wins this game by a touchdown as the Gators sputter on offense against a stout Wolverines defense. I give Jim Harbaugh the edge to put up the points on offense. Plus…
"The football gods have provided us heat and sun to shape the body and carve the mind," Jim Harbaugh said.
— Max Cohen (@MaxACohen) December 31, 2015
The Pick: Michigan -4.5
12 pm: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State | BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl | Ohio State -6, 56.5 |
I hate Notre Dame. I hate Ohio State. But I love this matchup. This is going to be a hell of a bowl game with a shit ton of points.
That’s why I like the over in this game, and I’ll honestly take it up to 60 points if I had to. As it sits, 56.5 is great value as both teams are capable of scoring in bunches, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see both teams in the 30s.
Notre Dame +6 is also a solid play here, and maybe sprinkle a bit on their money line if you’re feeling crazy. But for now, I’m just going to let the over take me right to the window.
The Pick: Over 56.5
4 pm: Iowa vs. Stanford | Rose Bowl | Stanford -6, 53.5 |
What did I tell you about the Big 10 Championship? Michigan State wins but Iowa covers. That’s exactly what happened, and I also gave you a little bone on the under. Well, time to re-up on the Hawkeyes and roll with them getting nearly a full touchdown this time.
What the Hawkeyes lack in talent they make up for in resiliency, good coaching, and determination. They’re basically every white wide receiver ever.
This game is going to be about experience and good coaching, which both teams have, but Stanford has a bit more of. I’ll lean Cardinal on the money line but Iowa ATS.
The Pick: Iowa +6
7:30 pm: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State | Allstate Sugar Bowl | Ole Miss -7.5, 68.5 |
Ole Miss is a great pick here, too. But for me, the over is too juicy not to touch it. I know, I know 68.5 seems excessive. Both these offenses can light it up and score lightning fast.
If you like football games that have the feel of a Madden 16 game on Rookie Mode then this one is for you. Big plays all over the place, defenses that make you scratch your head, and about 15 lead changes en route to probably 100 points.
Book it and end your New Years in a sea of money.
The Pick: Over 68.5