Originally published on 1/14/16. Scroll to bottom for most recent updates.

Despite the shitty weather, no sunlight and increased demand of Chapstick – January is a very exciting time in Chicago.

Haha, haha.

If there is any positive to January in Chicago, it’s the official commencement month for our annual Lollapalooza speculation.

Even though Grant Park’s gates don’t open until the end of July for the 25th anniversary of Lollapalooza, we’re starting the birthday party early. Yippee.

And thanks to Coachella recently announcing its 2016 lineup, the Lollapalooza 2016 picture has become a bit clearer.

Without giving away our entire formula, one of the key factors in figuring out the Lollapalooza lineup is the other major festivals. If an artist is playing Coachella, Governor’s Ball, Hangout Fest and/or Bonnaroo (among others) – their chances of playing Lollapalooza usually increase. Usually.

Round 1: Who Is Playing?

1. AlunaGeorge
Other 2016 Festivals: Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: None
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable

Before DJ Snake’s remix took it viral, this English electronic duo was the original mastermind behind “You Know You Like It.”

AlunaGeorge’s spot in Coachella’s lineup all but sealed their spot in Lollapalooza’s. Plus, their first big hit (“White Noise”) was a remix with Disclosure, another performer we believe will be attending the finest festival in the Midwest this summer. Keep reading, dawg.

2. Big Grams
Other 2016 Festivals: Hangout Fest, Governor’s Ball, Bonnaroo
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2011 (Phantogram) & 2014 (Outkast, Phantogram)
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

The collaboration between Phantogram and Outkast’s Big Boi couldn’t have gotten off to a better start, with September’s Big Grams EP landing them spots at Hangout Fest, Governor’s Ball and Bonnaroo.

Add Lollapalooza to that list.

3. CHVRCHES
Other 2016 Festivals: Governor’s Ball, Coachella, Bonnaroo
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2014
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

Fresh off their well-received second album, Every Open Eye, CHVRCHES is already locked into the big festival circuit. And this summer, we believe the Scottish synthpop trio will be back.

4. Disclosure
Other 2016 Festivals: Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2013
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

Book it. Caracal hasn’t quite taken the hold that Disclosure’s smashing debut Settle did, but that’s what tours and festivals are for.

Chicago was an early stop on that tour in October, leaving the Lawrence bros wide open for an epic return at Lollapalooza.

5. Foals
Other 2016 Festivals: Hangout Fest, Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2008, 2013
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

Besides being at Hangout Fest and Coachella, Foals has a wide open gap on their touring schedule between July 27th and August 9th. That gap is for their third performance at Grant Park. 

6. Flume
Other 2016 Festivals: Hangout Fest, Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2014
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

Bang. It was only a matter of time for the 24-year-old prodigy to return, who absolutely crushed his Lolla set at The Grove in 2014. With a new album due soon and slots at Hangout and Coachella, that return has arrived – and he’ll have plenty of songs to choose from.

7. Jack Ü (Headliner) featuring…JUSTIN BIEBER
Other 2016 Festivals: Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2011 & 2014 (Skrillex), 2009 (Diplo)
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable/Extreme Wild Card

DISCLAIMER: This post was updated (6:02pm on January 14th, 2016) to make it clear that we’re not predicting that Justin Bieber will headline, but merely make an appearance/cameo during Jack Ü’s set.

A performance from Jack Ü could actually happen. And because it’s Lollapalooza, we’re also predicting an appearance from the Biebs.

Based on what we’ve heard, 8. Major Lazer is a lock for Lollapalooza 2016. And based on what we’ve also heard, rumor has it that Diplo will be making an appearance not only with Jillionaire and Walshy Fire (the remaining members of Major Lazer since DJ Switch left) – but Skrillex as well.

That’s correct. We’re not only predicting that Major Lazer will be at Lolla, but also Jack Ü – our winner for 2015 Team of the Year. And because life is short, we think Lolla will go crazy for their 25th anniversary and invite the Biebs to come on stage as well.

9. Jane’s Addiction (Headliner)
Other 2016 Festivals: Shaky Knees (Atlanta)
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2003, 2009
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Duh

You can go ahead and place a large sum of money that Perry Farrell’s band will be headlining one of the four nights. If you weren’t aware, Perry Farrell started Lolla way back in 1991.

And yes, that’s where the name for Perry’s stage came from.

10. Joey Bada$$
Other 2016 Festivals: Governor’s Ball, Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: None
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

We thought Joey Bada$$ would be at Grant Park last year, and his slots at Governor’s Ball and Coachella would make it appear we were one year early.

About to be 21 years old, the Brooklyn-born rapper is riding a big wave from his first album released last January.

11. Kanye West (Headliner)
Other 2016 Festivals: Governor’s Ball
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2006, 2008
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Coin Flip

It’s crazy to think Kanye West hasn’t been back to his hometown’s biggest event since 2008, but everything about Kanye is crazy.

And now that he’s a month away from his new album Swish, plus already booked at Governor’s Ball, it seems that 2016 might finally mark the long-awaited reunion between Lolla and Yeezy.

12. The Lenny Kravitz (Headliner)
Other 2016 Festivals: Hangout Fest
Previous Lolla Appearances: None
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Wild Card

The Lenny Kravitz popped up in our radar when we saw him on the Hangout Fest docket. And considering the four-day lineup at Lollapalooza this year, The Lenny Kravitz made for a great Wild Card pick.

13. Louis The Child
Other 2016 Festivals: Governor’s Ball, Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: None
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable

Impressively, the young Chicago-natives – whose jam “It’s Strange” with talented vocalist K.Flay has blown up – got slots at Coachella and Governor’s Ball. When they get the nod for Lollapalooza – we won’t say we told you so.

14. Miike Snow
Other 2016 Festivals: Coachella, Hangout Fest, Governor’s Ball
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2009, 2012
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable

It’s shaping up to be a big year for the super popular indie pop collaboration from Sweden. They’re due to release their third album in March and are booked for the three major festivals above plus Ultra in Miami.

The only thing holding us back on Miike Snow is that member Christian Karlsson was at Lolla 2015 as a part of Galantis. Still, we’d be legitimately surprised if they weren’t at Grant Park.

UPDATE: January 15th, 2:07 pm

Since you all got sooo sensitive about our Bieber cameo prediction, we’ll give you a few more hints for this year’s lineup. But for the record, predicting an appearance from Bieber is not impossible (and it’s most certainly not click-bait).

Lollapalooza has been known for their guest appearances. And after all, it is their 25th anniversary.

Round 2: Who Else Is Playing?

15. M83
Other 2016 Festivals: Coachella, Governor’s Ball, Bonnaroo 
Previous Lollapalooza Appearances: 2012
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

According to Consequence of Sound, M83 will be all over the place this summer. However, you’ll notice that there’s a big chunk of the United States is missing. It’s called the Midwest, and that’s where Chicago is located.

In case you haven’t caught the hint, we believe M83 will be playing at Lollapalooza. With the Midwest tour gap, scheduled appearances at the other three major festivals, and the fact M83 is a live electronic band (whom Lolla loves) – they have all the makings of a lock for 2016.

16. Duke Dumont
Other 2016 Festivals: Governor’s Ball
Previous Lollapalooza Appearances: 2014
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable

Another no-brainer, Duke Dumont deserves a slot strictly from his 2014 appearance alone. We said it then and we’ll say it again, despite the stink bomb that somebody set off in the middle of the show – his set at Perry’s was one of the best from the entire weekend.

Stay tuned as we add more to the list.

UPDATE: January 22nd, 12:30 pm

It was basically official when they announced their touring schedule two days ago, but according to Consequence of Sound – it’s now official that Radiohead will be headlining Lollapalooza 2016.

Which of course, is massive news. For late 80’s and early 90’s kids, few bands have had a more unique and profound presence than The English alt-rock visionaries led by frontman/genius Thom Yorke.

Considering this is the 25th-anniversary edition of Lolla, a Radiohead headlining slot makes a lot of sense. On the cusp of releasing their ninth (!) studio album, Radiohead possesses a rare mix of nostalgia and current influence in the music industry – making this a slam dunk for Lollapalooza organizers. Especially because they haven’t been back since their lone appearance in 2008.

With Radiohead in the fold, that leaves seven headliner spots – six if you include Jane’s Addiction – still left to fill. If our early predictions are correct (see above), that number drops to three.

However, with the news that LCD Soundsystem will be headlining Bonnaroo and Primavera Sound Festival in addition to their Coachella slot, it’s about time we added them to the list as our sixth headliner.

  1. AlunaGeorge
  2. Big Grams
  3. CHVRCHES
  4. Disclosure
  5. Duke Dumont
  6. Flume
  7. Foals
  8. Jack Ü (Predicted Headliner)
  9. Jane’s Addiction (Predicted Headliner)
  10. Joey Bada$$
  11. Kanye West (Predicted Headliner)
  12. The Lenny Kravitz (Predicted Headliner)
  13. Louis The Child
  14. Major Lazer
  15. Miike Snow
  16. M83
    17. LCD Soundsystem (Predicted Headliner)
    18. Radiohead (Confirmed Headliner)

One final thing to note: The last time Radiohead was at Grant Park (2008), so was Kanye West. LCD Soundsystem’s last, and only, appearance was 2007. If those three all headline – which is looking more and more likely – the Lollapalooza 2016 lineup is going to be ridiculous.

lolla-tickets

UPDATE: March 9th, 11:37 am

We’re less than two weeks from tickets going on sale, so it’s time for another round of Lollapalooza picks.

While Coachella often has the greatest amount of artist overlap with Lollapalooza, the smaller and more top-heavy Governor’s Ball has also become a pretty accurate indicator in recent years.

Thus far, 8 of our 18 predicted Lollapalooza 2016 artists are playing at Governor’s Ball this summer: Big Grams, CHVRCHES, Duke Dumont, Joey Bada$$, Kanye West, Louis The Child, Miike Snow, and M83.

In addition to Kanye West – whose Governor’s Ball slot confirmed he’s a player in this year’s festival scene – there’s reason to believe there will be another headliner crossover between GB and Lolla.

With that said, here’s the next round of our lineup predictions for Lollapalooza 2016.

Round 3: WHO ELSE IS PLAYING?

19. The Killers
Other 2016 Festivals: Governor’s Ball
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2005, 2009, 2013
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable

Lollapalooza has a history of favoring rock acts, and The Killers are already slated to headline Governor’s Ball alongside Kanye and The Strokes.

Considering that frontman Brandon Flowers is slowly going solo, there won’t be many more chances to get these nostalgic-rock Gods from Nevada at Chicago’s main event for the last time.

And if you look at their tour page, you’ll realize their schedule cuts off at Lolla weekend. For an act of this caliber, this screenshot is a pretty big hint: The Killers are “probable” for Lollapalooza 2016.

lolla-lineup

2016 tour schedule for The Killers.

20. Robert DeLong
Other 2016 Festivals: Coachella
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2013
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable

DeLong plays really weird instruments and covers himself in tribal themed face-paint. These are just a few of the things that go into Robert DeLong’s live & innovative approach to electronic music. Check out our article on him, and make sure you circle his set time when July rolls around.

21. Robin Schulz
Other 2016 Festivals: Ultra
Previous Lolla Appearances: None
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Coin Flip

Schulz didn’t play last year, although we thought he would. He played at Lollapalooza Berlin in September and brings an irresistible sound for the summertime. If you’re a betting man (or woman), we’d recommend betting on Schulz to get his first Lolla nod this year.

22. Vince Staples
Other 2016 Festivals: Coachella, Bonnaroo, Governor’s Ball
Previous Lolla Appearances: None
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Lock

Vince Staples is essentially playing at every major festival this year. Vince Staples also has a sick new song with Flume, who we already confirmed will be at Grant Park this summer (scroll up).

So, according to basic math, Vince Staples will be at Lollapalooza 2016. According to more complex math, Vince Staples will be one of the weekend’s notable cameos.

And according to common sense, Vince Staples has a fun name to say.

23. Explosions in the Sky 
Other 2016 Festivals: Shaky Knees (Atlanta)
Previous Lolla Appearances: 2008, 2011
Lollapalooza 2016 Probability: Probable

Just like The Killers, Explosions in the Sky are Grant Park veterans with a tour schedule that cuts off the weekend right before Lollapalooza 2016.

They also have a new album, The Wilderness, due out April 1st. And considering this is the 25th-anniversary edition, we’d be rather surprised if “Explosions” don’t make their third Lolla appearance.

We won’t be surprised if we cry during “Your Hand In Mine” though.

Think you know who’s playing this year? Send tips to tips@thesixthirty.com